As highlighted previously, there are several methods of football trading available using betting exchanges, such as Betfair. While each of them remains a form of gambling, having a strategy in place and following it can lead to success and one of the top strategies is correct score trading.
For anyone who has placed any type of online bet on football, you will know the correct score market. It involves predicting what the correct score will be in a football match. The options include 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2 and so on.
The score is always based on the result after 90 minutes and does not include extra-time and penalties so keep this in mind when placing correct score bets.
On the Betfair website, you will see all the scores listed and anything which involves a lot of goals will be listed as ‘any home win’, ‘any other draw’ and ‘any away win’. You can choose to back or lay the scores you want in the usual way.
You must also be aware when any goal is scored during the match on which you are trading, it can have a significant impact on the in-play prices.
Due to the number of options when correct score trading, this is not always an easy trade for beginners but the information and example below will show you exactly how it can be done.
Understanding the Mechanics of the Correct Score Market
Firstly, you need to know how the correct score market behaves on a betting exchange such as Betfair. If you consider a football match in which one goal has been scored, that immediately makes some selections impossible.
If the home team has taken a 1-0 lead, you can no longer place a bet on the 0-0, 0-1 0-2 and so on. These will turn black with ‘1000’ in the blue back column.
As mentioned earlier, prices will change during the course of a game. If a match reaches half-time at 0-0, the prices for 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 will be now be shorter whereas the prices for all the other scores will have gone out or remained as they were before the match started.
The same applies to the second half of the game but if the scoreline remains at 0-0, you will notice some of the other prices, such as 1-0 and 0-1 beginning to get longer. Some scores may even drop off completely and no longer be available as we get closer to the end of the game.
If a goal is scored early in the game, the odds for 1-1, 2-1 and 1-2 will change because they have instantly become more likely whereas other scores, such as 2-2, 3-2 and 2-3 are likely to remain the same at this point.
If you can remember this, you have a good basis on which to begin correct score trading.
Correct Score Trading Examples
Before you consider correct score trading, you must pick the right match. By that we mean you need to choose a football match which has plenty of liquidity. You want to choose games which has around £10,000 or more matched on the correct score market before kick-off to be on the safe side.
This makes the top matches good for correct score trading in the Premier League, Champions League and La Liga for example.
High Scoring Games
If you think a match could end in a high score because both teams have been scoring and conceding goals recently, you can use this to your advantage when correct score trading. You can bet on a range of scores, let’s say six in total. These could be 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 3-1, 2-2 and 1-3.
By dutching, you can bet on all of these scorelines and make a similar profit regardless of which one comes through. However, you can also trade them by waiting to see what happens in the game and trading out when some goals have been scored.
If the score in the second half is 2-1, you can trade out to make a nice profit without having to worry about a flurry of late goals ruining your bet. You may have to wait until late in the game for a second goal to be scored and in this instance, you will be tempted to trade out and take a small loss.
You can judge this by following the match yourself and seeing if there are many goal scoring chances being created by either team.
Low Scoring Games
If, having done your research, you think a game is going to be low scoring but you are not sure who might come out on top, you can back a range of scores which includes 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0 and 0-2. Again, you can use dutching to ensure you make a profit if any of the above five scores are correct come the final whistle.
If the match is 0-0 at half-time, things are looking good and things would be even better if one of the teams was to score mid-way through the second half. You can then trade out for a good profit.
If there had been an early goal, you may have decided to close the trades early to avoid losing all the money bet by accepting a small loss.
Back to Lay
Using the back to lay correct score trading method you can back a correct score before kick-off and lay it in-play at lower odds. To do this, you will need to back a score which has both teams scoring, such as 1-1. If you expect this score to trade lower in-play it makes a good bet.
Let’s say the odds for 1-1 were 8.0 before kick-off and they have dropped to 3.5 in-play. A £100 stake would have seen a guaranteed profit, regardless of the final outcome of the match.
While this sounds great, you need to consider the match on which you will bet carefully and be strict with yourself when it comes to laying the correct score.
It is possible to make a big profit on a correct score trade but you will not make a profit on every trade. You must remain disciplined and be prepared to take a loss in some situations to protect your stake. Do not let a bet run and run in the hope things will turn out well in the end. More often than not, if things are not going your way in a match, it is unlikely to change to take a loss and save your stake.
Decision making is key when correct score trading. This applies to the time taken in researching the best match to use and when to lay the bet or cut your losses.